Post by davis on Aug 29, 2007 10:16:09 GMT 3
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US Open 2007: Day 3 picks
Alun Jones (AUS) v. Rafael Nadal (ESP)[2]
Arthur Ashe Stadium – 3rd match
Nadal begins his US Open campaign against a player he admits he’s never heard of, but he doesn’t have to worry about any particularly nasty surprises against a player who's spent nearly all his time on the challenger circuit. And like many an Aussie, Jones’ best results have come on grass.
Nadal comes in having had a so-so summer on hardcourts. After losing in the semifinals at Montreal to Djokovic, he hitched a ride to Cincinnati in Federer’s private jet but had to retire in his first-round match with dizzy spells. But the early exit did give him extra time to prepare for this event, and his self-belief seems higher than it has in previous years. He’ll want to start off playing close to the baseline and going for winners even in this relatively easy opening match, because that’s what he’ll have to do if he wants to keep going all the way to the title.
Prediction: Nadal
Frank Dancevic (CAN) v. Marat Safin (RUS)[25]
Louis Armstrong Stadium – 11:00 am
Every contemplation of a Safin match starts with the question of which version of him will show up. Sometimes, it’s both, as he showed in Cincinnati – hanging tough with Nadal for one set and then losing 6-0 in the second. But Safin's unpredictability sometimes distracts from the reality that he’s no longer quite as fleet and overpowering as he once was.
That means Dancevic, another shot-maker prone to being erratic, is in with a chance in this match. He’s been one of the feel-good stories of the summer – the last man into the draw at Indianapolis who ended up making the final, and followed up by becoming the first Canadian in well over a decade to reach the quarterfinals of Montreal. Then, he made it through US Open qualifying to set up this encounter.
But this will be Dancevic's first best-of-five match during the run, and defeating a player of Safin’s still-considerable caliber over that distance will be quite a challenge. Safin’s return, in particular, is likely to be a potent counter to Dancevic’s serve, and the former US Open champ is also tougher off the ground. Both have produced some memorable five-setters, so this could be a fun one if it goes long. But either way, expect a fair number of unforced errors from each side of the net.
Prediction: Safin
Dmitry Tursunov (RUS)[27] v. Tim Henman (GBR)
Louis Armstrong Stadium – 3rd match
“He's probably thinking, 'Every time I show up for a grand slam, I play this clown',” Tursunov commented after the draw came out.
Chances are it’s not too far from the truth. In their first-ever encounter at Wimbledon 2005, Tursunov defeated Henman 8-6 in the fifth and began a stretch where he took out Henman in three of four consecutive Slams. Overall, Turusnov has won five of their six matches
But in a career that has been full of such ironies, it’s appropriate that Henman would be drawn to face his tormentor in what could be his final Grand Slam match.
Peg Tursunov as the favorite again – if Henman doesn’t start well, it could be quick and ugly. But if Tiger Tim can shrug off worries about his back and find a little farewell inspiration, he could execute his net-rushing style well enough not to get pounded by the Russian’s powerful ground game.
Prediction: Henman
US Open 2007: Day 3 picks
Alun Jones (AUS) v. Rafael Nadal (ESP)[2]
Arthur Ashe Stadium – 3rd match
Nadal begins his US Open campaign against a player he admits he’s never heard of, but he doesn’t have to worry about any particularly nasty surprises against a player who's spent nearly all his time on the challenger circuit. And like many an Aussie, Jones’ best results have come on grass.
Nadal comes in having had a so-so summer on hardcourts. After losing in the semifinals at Montreal to Djokovic, he hitched a ride to Cincinnati in Federer’s private jet but had to retire in his first-round match with dizzy spells. But the early exit did give him extra time to prepare for this event, and his self-belief seems higher than it has in previous years. He’ll want to start off playing close to the baseline and going for winners even in this relatively easy opening match, because that’s what he’ll have to do if he wants to keep going all the way to the title.
Prediction: Nadal
Frank Dancevic (CAN) v. Marat Safin (RUS)[25]
Louis Armstrong Stadium – 11:00 am
Every contemplation of a Safin match starts with the question of which version of him will show up. Sometimes, it’s both, as he showed in Cincinnati – hanging tough with Nadal for one set and then losing 6-0 in the second. But Safin's unpredictability sometimes distracts from the reality that he’s no longer quite as fleet and overpowering as he once was.
That means Dancevic, another shot-maker prone to being erratic, is in with a chance in this match. He’s been one of the feel-good stories of the summer – the last man into the draw at Indianapolis who ended up making the final, and followed up by becoming the first Canadian in well over a decade to reach the quarterfinals of Montreal. Then, he made it through US Open qualifying to set up this encounter.
But this will be Dancevic's first best-of-five match during the run, and defeating a player of Safin’s still-considerable caliber over that distance will be quite a challenge. Safin’s return, in particular, is likely to be a potent counter to Dancevic’s serve, and the former US Open champ is also tougher off the ground. Both have produced some memorable five-setters, so this could be a fun one if it goes long. But either way, expect a fair number of unforced errors from each side of the net.
Prediction: Safin
Dmitry Tursunov (RUS)[27] v. Tim Henman (GBR)
Louis Armstrong Stadium – 3rd match
“He's probably thinking, 'Every time I show up for a grand slam, I play this clown',” Tursunov commented after the draw came out.
Chances are it’s not too far from the truth. In their first-ever encounter at Wimbledon 2005, Tursunov defeated Henman 8-6 in the fifth and began a stretch where he took out Henman in three of four consecutive Slams. Overall, Turusnov has won five of their six matches
But in a career that has been full of such ironies, it’s appropriate that Henman would be drawn to face his tormentor in what could be his final Grand Slam match.
Peg Tursunov as the favorite again – if Henman doesn’t start well, it could be quick and ugly. But if Tiger Tim can shrug off worries about his back and find a little farewell inspiration, he could execute his net-rushing style well enough not to get pounded by the Russian’s powerful ground game.
Prediction: Henman
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