Paris: The BreakdownPosted 05/25/2007 @ 3 :24 PM
It’s not quite “go time,” as Brad Gilbert might say, but it is at least “draw time.” This is the two-day grace period where we are allowed to imagine the tournament, which is what I will try here. Then the matches will start on Sunday and all predictions, opinions, hopes, and fears will be moot once again.
The Women
First QuarterWell, look what we have here. The two most-talked-about players among the women—Justine Henin and Serena Williams—have been shoved into the same quarter. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? For drama’s sake, most fans would want to see these two face off in the final; but having them potentially collide in the quarters at least makes it more likely that they will play. Judging by her loss to Patty Schnyder in Rome, on clay Williams is vulnerable to an upset.
I don’t think it will happen here. Williams begins with Tsvetana Pironkova, a Bulgarian whose claim to fame is upsetting Serena’s sister Venus in Australia a couple years ago. Serena’s main challenge could come from Dinara Safina in the fourth round; Safina likes clay and upset Maria Sharapova here last year.
Henin comes in having worked herself into pretty good clay-court form without overplaying. Na Li, Sybille Bammer, and Agnieska Radwanska shouldn’t scare her. The quarters may be the best time for Henin to meet Williams. The Belgian lost in three Slam finals last year and tends to be drained by the final weekend. I think she’ll be fresh enough to withstand the Serena onslaught. Barely.
Semifinalist: Justine HeninSecond QuarterJelena Jankovic is coming off a nice win in Rome, where she beat Svetlana Kuznetsova, last year’s Roland Garros runner-up. Jankovic, who’s seeded all the way up at No. 4 this time and has already won two Tier I events in 2007, may be in the process of turning a corner and becoming a consistent threat in big tournaments. She could face Venus Williams in the third round; the two went to a third-set tiebreaker on green clay earlier this year in Charleston before Jankovic pulled it out.
The bottom half of this section is highlighted by Nadia Petrova, Elena Dementieva, Nicole Vaidisova, and the hot-hitting Frenchwoman Aravane Rezai, who just beat Maria Sharapova in Turkey. Petrova is always dangerous on clay and Vaidisova made the semis here last year, but I think Jankovic is ready for them this time.
Semifinalist: Jelena Jankovic
Third QuarterThe top two seeds in this section, Kuznetsova and Ana Ivanovic, are never safe bets in any tournament, but they’ve both posted solid results over the last month. Ana beat Sveta to win Berlin, then Sveta came back and made the final in Rome. She lost to Jankovic there, but there are still few players who can hang with her athletically. Both her foot-speed and racquet-head speed are virtually unmatched among the women. It doesn’t look like she’ll be challenged early. The mysterious Anastasia Myskina, who actually won this event three years ago, is lurking in the second round; not sure exactly what to make of Myskina’s chances, but I’ll take Kuznetsova over her, and into the semis.
Semifinalist: Svetlana Kuznetsova
Fourth QuarterHere we have another double-barrelled section. Amelie Mauresmo and Maria Sharapova are slotted to meet in the quarters. But each will be lucky to make it there. Mauresmo has lacked the ground stroke power for Roland Garros and been beaten the last two years by young power hitters Ivanovic and Vaidisova. This year that honor could go to Lucie Safarova, who’s scheduled to play Mauresmo in the third round, or perhaps Anna Chakvedtadze, who would get her in the fourth. Sharapova has been injured and out of action; she’s vulnerable to just about anyone on clay right now, including her first-round opponent, France’s Emilie Loit, and her fourth-rounder, Patty Schnyder
Semifinalist: Patty Schndyer
Semifinals: Jankovic d. Henin; Kuznetsova d. Schnyder
Final: Kuznetsova d. Jankovic
The Men
First QuarterRoger Federer begins one of the biggest events of his career against American Michael Russell. Federer, who generally starts events sluggishly, could be tested for perhaps two sets. Russell is a pit bull who gets a lot of balls back. In the end, that will help Federer groove his game more quickly for the rest of the event. The rest of the quarter looks safe for him—Youzhny, Robredo, Ljubicic, Volandri, Ferrero, Safin, and hometown favorite Julien Benneteau are the likely opposition. Of those, trouble could come from the shotmaker Youzhny, and perhaps Benneteau, who, as Kamakshi says, only plays well in France. In theory, Ferrero could do some damage, but Federer looked comfortable against him in both Monte Carlo and Hamburg.
Semifinalist: Roger FedererSecond QuarterWith Davydenko, Almagro, a surging Monfils, Chela, Nalbandian, Gasquet, Cañas, and Gonzalez, this is a highly prickly section; Federer is lucky he’ll only have to face one of these guys. The highlight may be a third-rounder between Gasquet and Cañas. I’m not quite sure who to go with here; no one stands out as a likely dark horse. I’d like to think Gasquet could make his breakthrough in Paris this time, but I’m not sure about his fitness over the long haul, especially against a guy like Cañas. So I’ll take Gonzalez, who has found his footing again during the clay season.
Semifinalist: Fernando GonzalezThird QuarterPoor Andy. He hangs around Europe all month just so he can get to play a nasty, eager opponent like Igor Andreev in the first round. Andreev is motivated after being out with an injury, and his heavy forehand should push Roddick deep in the netherworld behind the baseline. If Andreev wins that, which I think he will, he’ll be a tough test for anyone. On the other side of this section is Novak Djokovic, and he’s sitting pretty, surrounded by names like Querrey, Calleri, Ferrer, Tursunov, and Baghdatis. Djokovic’s long-term fitness is also a question, but I think he’ll have enough for these guys.
Semifinalist: Novak DjokovicFourth QuarterThe best first-round match of the tournament has to be Rafael Nadal vs. Juan Martin del Potro. The young Argentine has all kinds of game, but I don’t think it will be enough to make a huge impression on Nadal, who likes to show the game’s other kids who’s king of the sandbox. After that, Nadal could face Lleyton Hewitt in the fourth round. They had a four-set war of attrition here last year, and another epic of counterpunching last week in Hamburg. Nadal doesn’t look like he quite knows how to approach the ultra-consistent Hewitt, who can mirror his defense and match his patience. Still, I wouldn’t bet against Rafa figuring something out.
Semifinalist: Rafael NadalSemifinals: Federer d. Gonzalez; Nadal d. Djokovic
Final: Federer d. Nadal 
Sixpack guard 
